BWOT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE!!
DATE: 17TH MAR 2022 | TIME: 7:50PM BST (+6 GMT)
SUB: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT | PERIOD: 19-22 MAR 2022
Under the influence of a Disturbance, A Low Pressure Area had formed 2days back over Southern Bay of Bengal. Currently, It is maintaining the same intensity over South East Bay Of Bengal and adjacent region.
It could intensify into a Tropical Depression (≥45kph) around 20/21st MARCH over South East Bay of Bengal adjoining Andaman Sea. Further intensification is skeptical and unlikely to achieve Cyclone status.
▪️Overall confidence in the forecast is high as a Low Pressure Area is present over South East BoB & adjoining area.
And MJO signal found over Phase 3 with almost Robust Amplitude(>1.5), which is favourable for Tropical development over BOB.
Also Sea Surface Temperature is high(28-30°C) over Southern & SE Bay, which is conductive for the development process.
Wind shear is currently moderate(⬇️) over the development area & could decrease into lower value during the forecast period.
Despite of the favourable parameters, Separation of the moisture branch in the middle of the forecast period might inhibit any significant intensification of the system.
The combination of these parameters could cause favourable environment early and convert into less favourable by end of the forecast period.
That’s why, It is having chances mostly for Tropical Depression rather than Cyclonic Storm.
•Max intensity could be between 45-55kph with gusting up to 75kph in extend.
Thus, the above mentioned parameters are leading High confidence in this forecast.
◾ LANDFALL & MAX INTENSITY:-
Landfall is anticipated over South Western Myanmar between Thandwe & Yangon as a Well Marked LPA or Depression by 21/22 March 2022.
•Max intensity could be between 45-55kph with gusting up to 75kph in extend.
⚠️Effects:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, South & South Western Myanmar could be effected by Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with 40-60kph Tropical Squalls(gust) between 20-22 March 2022.
★Note:-
These informations are based on Present conditions & it might be changed somewhere during the entire forecast period.
So, keep eye on the latest update for better information.
Stay connected, Stay alert, Stay Safe.
Thanks,©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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