NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 5/TROPICAL CYCLONE ASANI (02B)
DATE: 08 MAY 2022 | DAY: SUNDAY | TIME: 03:40PM BST (+6 GMT)
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The Cyclonic Storm(02B) over South East Bay of Bengal has moved further NW & and intensified into a Category 1(US) cyclone over SE central Bay of Bengal.
IMD named it “ASANI” today.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing excellent rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation) along with maintaining CDO feature aloft. The primary eye feature could not reveal out as the cyclone is experiencing moderate to high VWS.
It is being located about 1200km South of Kolkata, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 120km/h.
Gusting up to 145km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under marginally favourable environment due to moderate to high VWS offsetting by robust Outflow & High SST. Conditions could remain marginally favourable along with improving later during next 24-36hrs.
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•So the Cyclone could intensify slowly over the next 24-36hrs with a small window of faster intensification late.
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•As of present view, the Potential Cyclone could peak near 145kph by 9-10th May.
“There is a small chance of rapid intensification in the forecast period.
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 14km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally on North West direction towards Eastern Indian coast with slow but gradual intensification during next 24-36hrs. Gradual Weakening & Recurving into north & NNE direction likely thereafter.
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▪Landfall:-
It could cross the coasts between Odisha to SW Bangladesh around 12/13th May 2022 as a weakening Cyclone or Deep Depression.
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▪Warning: N/A
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 4-5days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, Eastern India & Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track between 10-15 May.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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