NB: High Confidence on this forecast track for 24hrs, medium confidence thereafter!!
UPDATE 6/TROPICAL CYCLONE ASANI (02B)
DATE: 09 MAY 2022 | DAY: MONDAY | TIME: 03:40PM BST (+6 GMT)
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The Cyclonic Storm ASANI (02B) over Southern Bay of Bengal has moved further NW & and intensified again into a Category 1(US) cyclone over SW central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation continues to show excellent rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation) along with maintaining CDO feature aloft. It won’t reveal any eye feature as the cyclone is experiencing moderate to high VWS.
It is being located about 960km South West of Kolkata, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 120km/h.
Gusting up to 145km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under marginally favourable environment due to moderate to high VWS offsetting by robust Outflow & High SST. Conditions could remain marginally favourable along with improving later during next 12-24hrs. Then the system could undergo gradual weakening due to dry air intrusion & weakening outflow.
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•So the Cyclone could maintain intensity over the next 12-24hrs with a small window of slight intensification and then weaken gradually.
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•As of present view, the Potential Cyclone could peak near 125kph by tonight or already peaked!
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 18km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally on NW/NNW direction towards Eastern Indian coast with maintaining intensity and weaken significantly while it reaches South Odisha-North Andhra Coast. Gradual Weakening & Recurving into NNE & NE direction likely thereafter.
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▪Landfall:-
It could cross/touch South Odisha/North Andhra coasts by 11 May 2022 as a weakening Cyclone.
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▪Warning:
Odisha & North Andhra Pradesh coast could experience 50-70kph winds along with gusting up to 85kph during 11-12 May 2022.
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 3-4days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct & indirect Impact of the system, Eastern India & Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track between 10-14 May. Instead of Squalls, Bangladesh will be mainly effected by moderate to heavy rain.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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