SPECIAL WEATHER UPDATE | DATE: 17 AUG 2022 | TIME: 11:30PM BST (+6 GMT) | SUB: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT | PERIOD: 18TH-20TH AUG 2022
Under the influence of a Disturbance, A Low Pressure Area could form over North-East Bay of Bengal by early hours of 18th Aug 2022.
BWOT dynamic analysis suggests intensification at least into a Depression within next 24hrs & up to a Deep Depression by 19th Aug 2022 & cross coasts as a Depression/Deep Depression through North Odisha by 19th evening/mid night.
▪️Global Models suggest a Low Pressure Area development over NE BOB by early hours of tomorrow. And possible intensification up to a Well Marked LPA later over northern Bay of Bengal & cross coasts through north Odisha by 19th evening. While some models also suggest intensification up to Depression by early hours of 19th Aug 2022
•Dynamic Analysis:
According to dynamic analysis by BWOT, A Disturbance is gathering huge convection over East Central & NE Bay of Bengal. Sea Surface Temperature in the suspect region (Northern BOB) is hovering around 29°C and higher(30°C) near coastal area of Odisha & West Bengal. That reflects favourable water body.
Madden Julian Oscillation signal is located very weakly over phase 8 with amplitude less than 1. However, global model forecast suggests MJO signal is likely to emerge into Phase 1 & gain amplitude. So, it will not support the system. But MJO filtered Velocity Potential Anomaly currently passing through Bay of Bengal & It will favour convective environment by enhancing the convention.
Wave activity is absent to be additional support. But Intra-Seasonal Oscillation is present over northern Bay of Bengal that is highly favourable for development of monsoonal system. The monsoon axis is running along the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation through North Bay-System Center-Central Myanmar & through South China Sea along with WWB in the central Bay of Bengal will fuel the system with additional moisture supply.
Wind Shear is currently moderate & likely to decrease & remain in favourable value over the suspect region.
Thus, the above mentioned parameters will support the development of a Depression/Deep Depression over northern Bay of Bengal during next 48hrs.
◾ LANDFALL & MAX INTENSITY:-
Landfall is anticipated over North Odisha coast as a Depression/Deep Depression by 19th Aug 2022 (late). The system could peak near 45/55kph prior to landfall.
⚠️Effects:-
Due to the direct influence of the Potential System, “Central India including Odisha, West Bengal & parts of Western Bangladesh could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Squalls between 18-23 Aug 2022. While Central India could have Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy falls at isolated places.
Northern Bay of Bengal could have rough seas between 18-21 Aug 2022.
☔RAINFALL:-
Due to the direct influence of the Potential System, “Central India including Odisha, West Bengal & parts of Western Bangladesh could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Squalls between 18-23 Aug 2022. While Central India could have Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy falls at isolated places.
See the graphic to see the development area & heavy rainfall potential area.
*NB: This forecast includes Rainfall Activity only by direct influence of the Tropical system which is based on the probable track.
It could be changed if the track changes!
Resources used in this analysis: CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC, ACCESS-G, NAVGEM, JMA, UKMET, Meteo France Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, ER, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, STR, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, Monsoon Axis, Intra-Seasonal Oscillation, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear.
★NOTE:-
These informations are based on Present conditions & it might be changed somewhere during the entire forecast period.
So, keep eye on the latest update for better information.
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Stay connected, Stay alert, Stay Safe.
Thanks,©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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