NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 1/WELL MARKED LPA(99B) | DATE: 18 AUG 2022 | DAY: THURSDAY | TIME: 03:20PM BST (+6 GMT)
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As of Thursday noon BST, the expected Low Pressure Area has formed and intensified into a Well Marked LPA North-East Bay of Bengal adjoining East Central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing notable rotations with sheared deep convection revealed the Low Level Circulation Center to the East.
It is being located approximately 200km SSW of Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12pm Today is 40km/h.
Gusting up to 55km/h.
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★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in favourable environment due to moderate wind shear offsetting by robust westward outflow. Having favourable SST (29°C), impressive lower level vorticity & few other atmospheric parameter’s support.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify gradually into a Depression within next 6hrs & into a Deep Depression within subsequent 12-18hrs prior to landfall over north Odisha and South Bengal.
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•There is a small pocket of very favourable environment in the future track of the system which might lead a bit rapid consolidation by 19th August. So, a minimal TC probability can’t be ruled out completely.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 14km/h.
*From the present location, it could move NW/WNW a bit faster towards West Bengal & North Odisha coast.
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★Landfall:-
It could cross North Odisha/West Bengal coast as a Depression Or Deep Depression by 19th August (late).
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★Warning:-
Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh coast might be in risk of 45-65kph winds with gusting up to 75kph by 18-20 August 2022. Then, winds could reduce gradually.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the northern Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 2/3days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 2/3days which is close to the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “Central India including Odisha, West Bengal & parts of Western Bangladesh could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Squalls between 18-23 Aug 2022. While Central India could have Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy falls at isolated places.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC, ACCESS-G, NAVGEM, JMA, UKMET, Meteo France Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, ER, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, STR, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, Monsoon Axis, Intra-Seasonal Oscillation, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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