SPECIAL WEATHER UPDATE | DATE: 18 OCT 2022 | TIME: 6:30PM BST (+6 GMT) | SUB: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT | PERIOD: 19TH-24TH OCT 2022
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Under the influence of a Disturbance (INVEST 92B), A Low Pressure Area could form over South-East Bay of Bengal by 20th Oct 2022.
BWOT dynamic analysis suggests that the potential system could intensify into a Well Marked LPA by 21-22nd October and further intensify into a Depression / Deep Depression by 22-24th October. And there is a probability of this system to intensify into a minimal Tropical Cyclone before landfall.
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▪️Global Models suggest a Low Pressure Area development over SE BOB by 20th October. And possible intensification up to a Cyclonic Storm between 22-24th October over West Central/ Central Bay of Bengal & cross coasts between Odisha to southern Bangladesh around 25th October. While some models also suggest intensification up to a Severe Cyclone by 24th Oct 2022.
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•Dynamic Analysis:
According to dynamic analysis by BWOT, A Disturbance is trying to gather convection over Andaman Sea. Sea Surface Temperature in the suspect region (Andaman Sea) is hovering around 29°C and higher(30°C) near coastal area of Odisha & West Bengal. That reflects favourable water body.
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Madden Julian Oscillation(RMM) signal is located very weakly over phase 6 with amplitude more than 1. Global model forecast suggests MJO signal is likely to remain between phase 6-7 during the whole forecast period. So, it will not support the system. And MJO filtered Velocity Potential Anomaly weakly passing through Pacific Ocean. So, It will also have adverse effect on the system.
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But a Strong CCKW is likely to pass through Bay of Bengal between 20-24 October, which will make favourable environment with bringing a enhanced convective envelope.
A WWB across the Southern Bay of Bengal will fuel the system with additional moisture supply.
Wind Shear is currently low to moderate & likely to increase to moderate to high value during the intensification period, which will blow convection far from the System Center & cause broad feature.
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Thus, the above mentioned parameters will support the development of a Depression/Deep Depression over West Central/Central Bay of Bengal between 22-24 October. And a bit intensification into a minimal Cyclonic Storm is in consideration thereafter.
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◾ LANDFALL & MAX INTENSITY:-
Landfall is anticipated between Odisha to Bangladesh coast as a Depression/Deep Depression/Minimal CS around 25th Oct 2022. The system could peak near 55-75kph(~1min) during the forecast period.
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⚠️Effects:-
Due to the direct influence of the Potential System, “East coastal India including Odisha, West Bengal & major parts of Bangladesh could have moderate to Very Heavy rain along with Squalls between 23-28 Oct 2022. While Eastern India, Western & Southern Bangladesh could have Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy falls at isolated places.
•Northern Bay of Bengal could have very rough seas between 24-27 Oct 2022. And coastal areas of Bangladesh , West Bengal and Odisha could experience 55-75kph winds with gusting up to 75-100kph.
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☔RAINFALL:-
Due to the direct influence of the Potential System, “East coastal India including Odisha, West Bengal & major parts of Bangladesh could have moderate to Very Heavy rain along with Squalls between 23-28 Oct 2022. While Eastern India, Western & Southern Bangladesh could have Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy falls at isolated places.
See the graphic to see the development area & heavy rainfall potential area.
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*NB: This forecast includes Rainfall Activity only by direct influence of the Tropical system which is based on the probable track.
It could be changed if the track changes!
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Resources used in this analysis: CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC, ACCESS-G, NAVGEM, JMA, UKMET, Meteo France Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, ER, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, STR, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, EWB, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear.
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★NOTE:-
These informations are based on Present conditions & it might be changed somewhere during the entire forecast period.
So, keep eye on the latest update for better information.
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Stay connected, Stay alert, Stay Safe.
Thanks,©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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