NOTE: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS FORECAST!!
UPDATE 1/ LOW PRESSURE AREA(LPA) | DATE: 17 AUGUST 2023 | DAY: THURSDAY | TIME: 9:45AM BST (+6 GMT)
A Low Pressure Area(LPA) has developed over North Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas. Which is creating deep convective clouds over the North Bay of Bengal. The main influence of the Low Pressure Area(LPA) extends over north central Bay of Bengal. Due to which the sea is somewhat rough in that place. But the sea near Bangladesh is still calm.
★Maximum Wind (1 minute status):-
Average maximum wind speed at 50 km radius from the low level center is 25 km/h at 9 am today increasing to 35 km/h with gusts.
★Dynamic Analysis:-
Upper level analysis indicates that the system is currently in a slightly favorable environment due to mixing of moderate to high VWS (25-35kt), moderate outflow, favorable SST (29-30°C), constructive low level vorticity, moisture supply and few relevant atmospheric parameters. . However, other parameters, including wind shear, may become unfavorable very quickly.
• Due to the above mentioned conditions, it is not possible to increase its strength much. During the next 24 hours, it may become slightly organized and the wind intensity may increase slightly.
•As a result, it may cross the Odisha coast as a Low Pressure Area(LPA) in the next 24 hours without increasing its strength much.
•Depending on the atmospheric conditions mentioned above, the system may attain a maximum speed of 30-35kph(~1min), which may increase to 45-50km/h with gusts.
★Movement:-
It has been staying almost at the same place for the past 6 hours.
*From its present position, it may move in an average West-Northwest direction.
★Landfall:-
It is likely to cross Odisha coast as a Low Pressure Area(LPA) by tomorrow afternoon to night. And then it could be merged with Monsoon Trough.
★ Warning:-
Under the influence of the system, gusty winds of 30 to 50 kmph are likely to occur in Northern Bay of Bengal. Because of which, the sea can be a bit rough. So it is better to move with measures according to the situation.
★Suggestion:-
Fishermen and small boats are advised not to venture into the deep sea for the next three days. Otherwise, it could be somewhat a bit risky. And those at sea are safer to navigate near the coast.
★Rainfall:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, substantial rainfall is likely over East Central India including Orissa, Chhattisgarh, India. However, there was no sign of heavy rainfall in Bangladesh except for scattered rains. On the contrary, there is a possibility of some more thundershowers in the eastern part of the country, especially in the northern part of Chittagong division and Sylhet division in the evening or night every day for the next three days. Apart from this, there may be scattered thundershowers in other parts of the country.
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★Note: This information may change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Components used in this analysis: Global Model, Himawari 9 Satellite, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, Sea Surface Temperature, MJO, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT)
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