NOTE: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TILL 48HRS AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER!!
UPDATE 1/ LOW PRESSURE AREA (95B) | DATE: 30 NOVEMBER 2023 | DAY: THURSDAY | TIME: 3:25AM BST (+6 GMT)
The Circulation (“Invest 95B”) over the south east Bay of Bengal adjoining South Andaman sea had moved west north-westwards and intensified into a Low Pressure Area over Southeast Bay of Bengal on 28th Nov. It is currently located about 1650km South of Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh.
Multi-spectral satellite animation is showing marginal rotations with pieces of formative deep convection across the disorganized Low Level Circulation Center.
★WINDS(1MIN AVG):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12am Today is 25km/h. Gusting up to 35km/h.
★Dynamic Analysis:-
Upper level analysis of the atmosphere indicates that the system is currently in a favorable environment, with favorable sea surface temperatures (28-29°C), moisture supply, low VWS, good outflow and sufficient relevant atmospheric parameters.
• Due to the above mentioned conditions, it may gradually intensify into a Well Marked LPA within next 12-18hours, Depression by 30th night/1st Dec morning and a Deep Depression by 1st December evening or night. Further, it may intensify into a Cyclonic Storm by 2nd Dec.
•There is high uncertainty in the maximum intensity forecast. According to the above mentioned atmospheric conditions, the maximum intensity of the system may be between 75-105kph(~1min) with gusting between 95-125kph.
★TRACK:-
It has moved north-westward at an average speed of 15 km/hr during last 6 hours.
*From present location, it may move North-westward initially and then WNW becoming more organised.
★LANDFALL:-
There is a large uncertainty in respect of the landfall area. We need to wait untill the system becomes organised to have a clearer view. Although Andhra Pradesh looks bit more risky as of now.
★WARNING: –
★RAINFALL: –
SOURCES/RESOURCES USED IN THIS ANALYSIS: Global Models, Himawari 9 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, EWB, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge, IMD forecast, BMD forecast.
Confidence Category:
High: Trajectory change may be limited to within 100 km.
Moderate/Medium: Trajectory change may be limited to within 200 km.
Low: Trajectory change may exceed 200 km.
Note: This information may vary along with the change of the environment . So, check new updates for more better information! Make sure to follow official information in case of making any decision.
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Thanks, © Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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