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TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL | 02-04 DEC 2021

SPECIAL WEATHER UPDATE!!
DATE: 30TH NOV 2021
TIME: 9:30PM BST (+6 GMT)
SUB: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
PERIOD: 2-4 DECEMBER 2021


An LPA from Gulf of Thailand has emerged into Andman Sea today. It could track WNW &  intensify into a Tropical Depression (≥45kph) around 2nd December over South Central adjoining SE Bay of Bengal.
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▪️Due to having favourable conditions, it could  intensify into a Deep Depression or even a Cyclonic Storm over West Central adjoining Central Bay of Bengal by 3rd December.
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▪️Overall confidence in the forecast is high as a Low Pressure Area has emerged over South Andaman Sea with maintaining well structure.
But MJO signal found between Phase 5-6 with Amplitude(≤1), which is not Supportive for Tropical development over Bay of Bengal.
But Sea Surface Temperature is favourable(29-30°C) over most parts of Bay of Bengal, which is conductive for the development process.
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Wind shear is currently Low to Moderate(⬇️) over the System Center offsetting by relatively robust outflow aloft. And this combination is likely to sustain during the whole forecast period with more improvement further.

That’s why, It is having chances to intensify into a Depression then Deep Depression & further up to a Cyclonic Storm.
•Max intensity is dependent on the track & future condition of the Bay of Bengal which is skeptical right now.

Thus, The LPA, Low VWS, Outflow & other favourable parameters are leading High confidence in this forecast.
★See the Graphic to see visually the development area.
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LANDFALL & MAX INTENSITY:-
Landfall is anticipated over Odisha coast or likely skirting over the coast as a Deep Depression/ Cyclonic Storm around 4th Dec 2021(may vary). Further It might cross West Bengal coast & enter into Bangladesh through Khulna Division as a Depression or Deep Depression by 5th Dec(late).
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•The forecast track is based on the present data analysis & may not remain consistent if any change appears in the future data.


Max intensity is skeptical right now & anticipated with the track & future condition of the Bay of Bengal.
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⚠️Effects:-
Due to the direct impact of the system/Cyclone- North Andhra, Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh could be effected by Moderate to Heavy rain along with Strong Tropical Squalls & Isolated Heavy to Very Heavy falls between 3-8th Dec 2021.
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★Note:-
These informations are based on Present conditions & it might be changed somewhere during the entire forecast period.
So, keep eye on the latest update for better information.

Stay connected, Stay alert, Stay Safe.
Thanks, ©BWOT
A Virtual Weather Research Center of Bangladesh.

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