Tropical Storm Mun Update – July 4, 2025, 3 PM UTC

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued Prognostic Reasoning Warning Number 12 for Tropical Storm 04W (Mun) as of 3 PM UTC on July 4, 2025. The system continues to slowly intensify as it tracks northeastward over open waters well east of Japan. Let’s Take a look on the latest Tropical Storm Mun Update :

Current Position and Motion

• Location: 30.2°N, 145.3°E

• Distance: About 457 km northeast of Chichi Jima, Japan

• Recent Movement: Northeast at 7 km/h over the past 6 hours

• Significant Wave Height: 7.6 meters

Current Intensity as of Tropical Storm Mun Latest Update

• Maximum Sustained Winds: 102 km/h (equivalent to 55 knots)

• Environment: Favorable, with near-zero vertical wind shear and strong eastward outflow enhancing the system.

• Sea Surface Temperature: 25–26°C

Satellite Analysis of Tropical Storm Mun

Enhanced infrared imagery shows a compact central dense overcast with deep convection still sheared southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). A recent SAR pass confirmed a well-defined center with maximum winds near 100 km/h.

• Dvorak Estimates: Range from 65 km/h to 102 km/h

• CIMSS Automated Estimates: Range from 68 km/h to 100 km/h

Confidence in the storm’s current position and intensity remains medium due to partial exposure of the LLCC.

Steering Environment across Tropical Storm Mun 

Mun is currently steered by a deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) to its east and southeast. This setup will guide the storm northeastward for the next 36 hours towards a weakness in the ridge caused by an approaching upper-level trough.

Forecast Track and Intensity of the Potential Typhoon Mun 

• Next 24 hours: Modest intensification is forecast as the storm remains in a favorable upper-level environment but marginal sea surface temperatures (24–25°C) will limit rapid strengthening. Peak intensity could reach about 130 km/h (70 knots) by tomorrow.

• 36–96 hours: The system is expected to curve more northward as the STR rebuilds to the north. By TAU 96, Mun will start to interact with stronger subtropical westerlies.

• Beyond 96 hours: The cyclone will weaken rapidly due to cold waters and high vertical wind shear (45–75 km/h) and begin extratropical transition.
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 Model Guidance of Potential Typhoon Mun 

• Deterministic models agree well through 36 hours, then diverge significantly out to 120 hours.

• The GFS has adjusted closer to the consensus track, while NAVGEM remains an outlier.

• Ensemble spread (GEFS) remains broad, while the ECENS ensemble shows tighter clustering east of Japan.

• Intensity models show a peak near 130–140 km/h, but there’s medium uncertainty due to varying upper-level conditions.

✅ Key Takeaways

✅ Current Winds: 102 km/h
✅ Possible Peak Winds: Up to 130 km/h in 24 hours
✅ Track: Moving northeast, then turning northward before weakening
✅ No direct threat to land at this time, but shipping interests in the northwest Pacific should monitor developments.

Update Time: July 4, 2025 — 3 PM UTC
Source: JTWC Prognostic Reasoning Warning NR 012 for TS 04W (Mun)

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