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TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B UPDATE 4 | 12PM, 03 DEC

NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 4/CYCLONIC STORM(05B)
DATE: 03 DEC 2021
DAY: FRIDAY
TIME: 12:00PM BST (+6 GMT)

The Depression over South Central Bay of Bengal has moved further NW & intensified into a Cyclonic Storm over West Central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing notable rotations with sheared deep convection partially obscured the Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 470km SE of Vishakhapatnam, India.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 65km/h.
Gusting up to 80km/h.
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★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in favourable environment due to low wind shear with robust outflow aloft. Also having favourable SST (28-29°C) & few other atmospheric parameter’s support. But Shear might increase from tomorrow.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify slightly over the next 12hrs & maintain it’s intensity during subsequent 12hrs.
•Then, then slow but gradual weakening process might take place!
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•Due to land interaction & increasing shear thereafter, it could weaken gradually into a Deep Depression & further into a Depression while tracking NE towards WB & Bangladesh.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 20km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally NW towards North Andhra Pradesh till this evening & then recurve NNE/NE towards West Bengal & Bangladesh by touching/Crossing Odisha coast.
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★Landfall:-
It could touch/cross Odisha coast between 4th(evening)- 5th(Morning) Dec as a Deep Depression. Further it might cross West Bengal coast as a Depression between 5th(night)- 6th(afternoon) Dec.
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★Warning:-
North Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coast might be in risk of 55-65kph winds with gusting up to 75kph by 04-05 December. Then, West Bengal & South West Bangladesh could be effected by 40-50kph winds with gusting up to 60kph.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Central, West Central, NW Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 3days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 3days which is nearing the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh could have moderate to heavy rain along with isolated heavy to very heavy spell between 03-8th Dec 2021.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
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Share as much as possible to inform everyone.
Stay connected for next update!
Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).

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