NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 7/ TROPICAL DEPRESSION(05B)
DATE: 05 DEC 2021
DAY: SUNDAY
TIME: 04:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
The Cyclonic Storm “JAWAD” had moved NNE & weakened into a Deep Depression last night, then further moved NNE & weakened into a Depression over NW Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing marginal rotations with sheared deep convection & partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 420km SW of Kolkata, India.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 50km/h.
Gusting up to 70km/h.
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★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in less favourable environment due to moderate to high vertical wind shear with decent outflow. Having favourable SST (28-29°C) & few other atmospheric parameter’s support. But still the increasing shear & dry air intrusion is inhibiting any further development.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could weaken gradually into a Well Marked within next 24hrs while crossing West Bengal Coast.
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•Later, Due to land interaction, increasing shear, & dry air intrusion could cause dissipation of this system over Bangladesh by 7th December.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on NNE direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 22km/h.
*From the present location, it could move NE towards West Bengal & Bangladesh by touching Odisha coast.
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★Landfall:-
It is touching Odisha coast this(5th Dec) afternoon as a Tropical Depression. Further it might cross West Bengal coast as a WML by 6th Dec(afternoon-evening).
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★Warning:-
Odisha coast might be in risk of 40-50kph winds with gusting up to 60 kph. Then, West Bengal & South West Bangladesh could be effected by 35-45kph winds with gusting up to 55kph.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Central, West Central, NW Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 2days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 2days which is nearing the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh could have moderate to heavy rain along with isolated heavy to very heavy spell between 05-7/8th Dec 2021.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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