NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 3/TROPICAL DEPRESSION(92B) | DATE: 22 OCT 2023 | DAY: SUNDAY | TIME: 02:00AM BST (+6 GMT)
As of Saturday evening BST, “Invest 92B” has further moved north-westward and intensified into a Tropical Depression. Currently, It is being located over West Central adjoining central Bay of Bengal as a Tropical Depression.
Multi-spectral satellite animation is showing rotations with deep CDO convection across the Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 1015km SW of Chittagong, Bangladesh.
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12am Today is 45km/h. Gusting up to 60km/h.
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in a favorable environment due to good outflow, favorable SST (29-30°C), good lower level vorticity, decent moisture supply, low VWS offsetting by absence of MJO, descending branch of MJO and relevant atmospheric parameters.
•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify gradually into a Deep Depression within next 24hrs & into a minimal Cyclonic Storm by 23-24th Oct. Overall conditions doesn’t support any significant Tropical Cyclone till now. Although, Probability of a minimal CS(<85kph) should be kept as the sea surface temperature and VWS is supportive throughout the potential track of the system.
•With the above atmospheric condition, the system is likely to peak near 65-85kph(~1min) with gusting up to 85-105kph.
It was moved north-westward with the speed of 20kph during past 6hrs.
*From the present location, it could initially move NNW over West Central Bay of Bengal and intensify gradually.
Around 23rd Oct, it could recurve NE towards Bangladesh coast with gradual intensification up to a Minimal Cyclonic Storm.
It could cross the Bangladesh coast between Barisial & Chittagong as a Deep Depression or Minimal Cyclonic Storm by 25th October.
Most parts of coastal Bangladesh, including parts of West Bengal coast, may experience 45-65kph winds with gusting up to 65-85kph by 25th of October 2023.
Fishermen & Small boats are requested not to venture into the deep sea along the track of the system during next 4 days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into the deep sea for the given period which is close to the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
Due to the direct influence of the System, “Southern and Eastern Bangladesh” could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls between 24-27 Oct 2023. While Central Bangladesh and coastal West Bengal could have moderate to heavy rain.
*Rainfall activity could reduce significantly across Bangladesh from 27th Oct.
★Note: This information is subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 9 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, EWB, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Vertical Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, © Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).