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TROPICAL CYCLONE (05B) UPDATE 5 | 01:50AM, 04 DEC

NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 5/CYCLONIC STORM(05B)
DATE: 04 DEC 2021
DAY: SATURDAY
TIME: 01:50AM BST (+6 GMT)

The Cyclonic Storm “JAWAD” over West Central Bay of Bengal has moved NNW & weakened a bit over the same region.
Multispectral IR satellite animation is showing marginal rotations with sheared deep convection partially obscured the Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 280km SE of Vishakhapatnam, India.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 65km/h.
Gusting up to 80km/h.
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★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in marginally favourable environment due to low to moderate wind shear with less marked outflow aloft. Having favourable SST (28-29°C) & few other atmospheric parameter’s support. But Shear might increase from tomorrow.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could maintain it’s intensity during next 12hrs.
•Then, then gradual weakening process might take place!
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•Due to land interaction & increasing shear thereafter, it could weaken gradually into a Deep Depression & further into a Depression while tracking NE towards WB & Bangladesh.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on NNW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 16km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally northward & then recurve NNE/NE towards West Bengal & Bangladesh by touching Odisha coast.
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★Landfall:-
It could touch Odisha coast between 4th(night)- 5th(noon) Dec as a Depression/Deep Depression. Further it might cross West Bengal coast as a Depression between 5th(night)- 6th(afternoon) Dec.
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★Warning:-
North Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coast might be in risk of 50-60kph winds with gusting up to 75kph by 04-05 December. Then, West Bengal & South West Bangladesh could be effected by 40-50kph winds with gusting up to 60kph.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Central, West Central, NW Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 2days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 2days which is nearing the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh could have moderate to heavy rain along with isolated heavy to very heavy spell between 04-7/8th Dec 2021.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
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Share as much as possible to inform everyone.
Stay connected for next update!
Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).

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