NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 6/CYCLONIC STORM(05B)
DATE: 04 DEC 2021
DAY: SATURDAY
TIME: 03:20PM BST (+6 GMT)
The Cyclonic Storm “JAWAD” over West Central Bay of Bengal was remain almost stationary for a while, then moved slightly north & maintaining the same intensity over the same region.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing marginal rotations with sheared deep convection partially obscured the Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 190km ESE of Vishakhapatnam, India.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 65km/h.
Gusting up to 80km/h.
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★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in less favourable environment due to moderate to high wind shear with less marked outflow. Having favourable SST (28-29°C) & few other atmospheric parameter’s support. But still the increasing shear & Dry Air intrusion is inhibiting the development.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could weaken gradually into a Deep Depression within next 12hrs.
•Later, Due to land interaction, increasing shear, dry air intrusion could cause gradual weakening into a Depression while tracking NE towards WB & Bangladesh. And further weakening trend might lead the system to downgrade into a WML while crossing the coast of West Bengal & SW Bangladesh on 6th Dec.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on Northward direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 10km/h.
*From the present location, it could move NNE/NE towards West Bengal & Bangladesh by touching Odisha coast.
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★Landfall:-
It could touch Odisha coast by tomorrow(5th Dec) afternoon or evening as a Tropical Depression. Further it might cross West Bengal coast as a WML by 6th Dec.
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★Warning:-
North Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coast might be in risk of 50-60kph winds with gusting up to 75kph by 04-05 December. Then, West Bengal & South West Bangladesh could be effected by 35-45kph winds with gusting up to 55kph.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Central, West Central, NW Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 2days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 2days which is nearing the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal & Bangladesh could have moderate to heavy rain along with isolated heavy to very heavy spell between 04-7/8th Dec 2021.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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