NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 4/WELL MARKED LPA
DATE: 10 NOV 2021 | DAY: WEDNESDAY
TIME: 2:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
The Well Marked LPA over Southern Bay of Bengal has further moved on WNW & intensified slightly over South-West BOB.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing rotations with improving convection across the system center.
A deep convective banding sheared to the west of the Low Level Circulation Center.
★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 40km/h.
Gusting up to 50km/h.
★Forecast:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in favourable environment due to low to moderate wind shear offsetting by excellent westward outflow.
Also Having favourable SST (28-30°C) & other atmospheric parameter’s support.
***Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify into a Tropical Depression within next 6-12hrs.
***The breakdown in shear value combined with excellent outflow could cause gradual intensification and help the system to attain Deep Depression status by tomorrow morning.
★Movement:-
It has moved on WNW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 20km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally WNW towards TN-AP Coast.
★Landfall:-
It could cross North TN/South AP coast near Chennai around Tomorrow(11th) afternoon as a Deep Depression.
★Warning:-
Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh coast might be in risk of 45-55kph winds with gusting up to 65kph during the landfall period.
Also Sri Lanka could have partially rough weather.
★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the South & South-West Bay & neighborhood areas during next 2days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 2days nearing the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the deep sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
★Rainfall:-
Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh could have heavy to very heavy rain along with gusty winds during next 3/4 days.
★★★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new update for better information!
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Thanks, ©bwotweather.com
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team- BWOT
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